Hi all, Nikephoros here. I've pushed the commonly seen MEQ heavy support choices through the my vehicle kill calculator and some things jumped out that may or may not interest you, but I thought I would share.
First up are Long Fangs with four Krak Missile Launchers. Blood Angels often take 4x missile Devastators and you sometimes see vanilla marines bring them too, but much more rare since they cost significantly more. These guys were in almost every 5th Edition SW list, so lets see how they stack up in 6th.
4x Long Fangs w/Missiles - 115 points
Ave. by HP 3.4913 1.876 1.4349 0.9523 0.1684
Ave. by Insta 0.5651 0.6725 0.4751 0.2559 0.0
Ave. Total 4.056 2.549 1.91 1.208 0.168
As you would hope, these shred AV10. They can kill a Rhino a bit better than every other turn. They almost kill two Chimeras per game. The jump to AV13 isn't nearly as bad as AV14, but killing one Predator per game is not what you want to be spending your time doing. Lastly, you barely have a chance to hurt Land Raiders, so your best bet is to shoot at literally anything else.
Next up we have the Space Marine Rifleman Dread. While not technically a heavy support choice, they fulfill the same role and it should be taken into consideration. These guys are very common again in 6th, since they take on fliers. They are not exactly amazing at taking down fliers, but they are better than most alternatives.
Rifleman Dread - 125 points
Kills AV10 AV11 AV12 AV13 AV14
Ave. by HP 3.5365 1.7968 1.2385 0.5806 0.0
Ave. by Insta 0.53 0.5643 0.3029 0.0 0.0
Ave. Total 4.067 2.361 1.541 0.581 0.0
So what does 10 more points than a Long Fang Squad buy you? First, you lose any hope against AV14, which is hardly worth mentioning anyway. As you can see, against AV13 the single point of strength lost translates to half effectiveness. Since a lot of MEQ armies are bringing more AV13 and Necrons love it as well, this is a painful loss. You're half a Chimera worse than Long Fangs. Against Rhinos, you are at virtual parity and against AV10 you are at even more of a parity situation. So what are the advantages of Riflemen? Two things: game against fliers, and the fact that they come from Elites rather than Heavy Support. Those are definitely assets in their favor.
Up next, their more feared Grey Knight cousin...
Psyfleman Dread - 135 points
Kills AV10 AV11 AV12 AV13 AV14
Ave. by HP 4.0199 2.3237 1.8023 1.2341 0.3076
Ave. by Insta 0.6171 0.785 0.5708 0.3102 0.0
Ave. Total 4.637 3.109 2.373 1.544 0.308
Fairly obvious looking at these numbers why these are so justifiably feared. They have the same game against fliers as the Rifleman, but they gain half a Rhino, almost half a Chimera, have significant game against AV13, but like the others they have no business shooting at Land Raiders. This is a hefty 5 point upgrade indeed. The superiority of these are such that it makes GK with Marine allies a much stronger consideration than Marines with GK allies.
The next two saw little play in 5th Edition, but are seeing a resurgence in 6th thanks to the AV13 numbers we've been seeing above.
Predator Destructor - 120 points
Kills AV10 AV11 AV12 AV13 AV14
Ave. by HP 3.2828 1.5964 1.2486 0.8354 0.0976
Ave. by Insta 0.8751 1.1639 0.8665 0.5534 0.3467
Ave. Total 4.158 2.76 2.115 1.389 0.444
This guy has some serious game. Not only is he tough to kill, but he is competitive against AV10, better at killing Rhinos than everyone so far besides Psyfleman Dreads. His Chimera game is quite superior to most, especially in the above the rim odds to Explode one thanks to two Lascannons. Against other AV13 the Lascannons show their worth. I sound like a broken record, but don't waste shots against Land Raiders.
Kills AV10 AV11 AV12 AV13 AV14
Ave. by HP 0.886 0.3611 0.2608 0.1776 0.014
Ave. by Insta 1.2233 1.2269 1.191 0.7725 0.5501
Ave. Total 2.109 1.588 1.28 0.95 0.564
Simply put, these are brought for their ability to kill elite infantry and deathstars. Only a foolish opponent would parking lot his vehicles against these so I only assumed one hit per turn. So the big selling point of these guys are killing Paladins and Nob Bikerz really, not to fight against vehicles. One thing to note though, being Strength 10 AP2 Ordinance means they have a much higher ability to pop vehicles in a single volley than the others. While this isn't something you really need to consider during list building, it should be something you have in your pocket tactically. Sometimes you absolutely HAVE to kill a vehicle this turn, or else. And the ability to one shot with this guy is worth knowing.
Lastly is something that nobody is bringing, but perhaps these numbers will surprise you?
Land Raider Godhammer - 250 points
Kills AV10 AV11 AV12 AV13 AV14
Ave. by HP 3.2872 1.5378 0.953 0.712 0.1892
Ave. by Insta 1.2585 1.3177 1.0029 0.6948 0.4268
Ave. Total 4.546 2.856 1.956 1.41 0.616
The Godhammer Land Raider is much maligned, but as you can see it is insanely hard to kill with anything short of Lance weapons or Melta. It certainly trumps the others on this list. It also has very, very good game against fliers since it can shoot them dead and is very tough for most fliers to kill in return. The small price you pay for this? Double the points. From looking at these stats, you aren't bringing a Godhammer to kill AV10. It's good against Rhinos and Chimeras, but you can easily fall into a trap where you ignore Rhinos to have the Land Raider "earn its points back." But honestly, as we can see you're aren't bringing it for those purposes. What it DOES do well is going over the top of AV13. If everyone is bringing Predators, the guy with Godhammers is king.
Conclusions:
These choices seem very balanced against each other... except the Psyfleman which is in a class by itself. When in doubt, take a Psyfleman against any comers. Lastly, you may laugh at the very idea of the inclusion of a Land Raider in this list, but consider what it is very strong against: AV13 and fliers. These were obviously big winners in the new edition. If the worst case scenario happens and 6th Edition becomes Flierhammer (and we don't get a Flakk FAQ boost) you could do worse than bringing Land Raiders. They shoot the fliers out of the sky and those very same fliers are going to struggle to do more than scratch the paint in return. While Land Raiders are somewhat a joke now, if AV13 and fliers become what Rhinos and Razorbacks were in 5th Edition the joke might get a lot less funny.
These choices seem very balanced against each other... except the Psyfleman which is in a class by itself. When in doubt, take a Psyfleman against any comers. Lastly, you may laugh at the very idea of the inclusion of a Land Raider in this list, but consider what it is very strong against: AV13 and fliers. These were obviously big winners in the new edition. If the worst case scenario happens and 6th Edition becomes Flierhammer (and we don't get a Flakk FAQ boost) you could do worse than bringing Land Raiders. They shoot the fliers out of the sky and those very same fliers are going to struggle to do more than scratch the paint in return. While Land Raiders are somewhat a joke now, if AV13 and fliers become what Rhinos and Razorbacks were in 5th Edition the joke might get a lot less funny.
