Kirb your enthusiasm!

WEBSITE HOSTED AT: www.3plusplus.net

"Pink isn't a color. It's a lifestyle." - Chumbalaya
"...generalship should be informing list building." - Sir Biscuit
"I buy models with my excess money" - Valkyrie whilst a waitress leans over him


Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Fallacy 40k: The Win-More Fallacy


This is a mistake you'll see newer players make a lot, but even for more experienced gamers it's hardly uncommon. It usually starts something like this:

"Man, Draigo and a squad of Paladins is just about impossible to kill; that's a really strong unit and it can support itself with shooting. Give them all Halberds or Daemonhammers and you're looking at a really tough squad to bring down. Oh man, and with a Librarian I can mix up weapons for wound allocation more and have 3+ cover and S7, +2D6 armor pen, I10 and other good stuff. And if I add a Techmarine I can get Rad and Psychotroke Grenades also so I can Instant Death almost anything and kill even big Ork hordes! Man oh man this unit is so unbeatable!"

And occasionally it will be, but against a decent/good opposing general it's actually very underwhelming because you're falling into the "win-more" fallacy.

The fallacy, essentially, is continuing to pay points (or other resources, depending on the game) for things that don't help much when you're losing, but when you're winning help you win even more- which is generally unnecessary and a poor use of those points. In the above example, Draigo + buddies should already murder virtually anything in close combat; as you continue to stack things onto them, the improvements become more and more marginal because there are already so few units that stand any chance against you in a fight. You could have instead spent those extra points to shore up weak points- say, by adding more scoring units, or more long-range shooting, or whatever, which are all very real weaknesses of the list. Using your resources where you need them is the fundament of good list-building.

Although such melee "deathstars" are the most egregious offenders in this category, they are far from the only one. "Spam" lists often fall prey to this same problem of one-dimensionality; if you've already got six squads with 3+ Meltaguns in them, do you really need another, or do you need some more long-range firepower instead? Is that 24th Lance weapon really going to tip the balance, or might you be better off diversifying a bit? This is the counterpoint to saturation and part of a strategy of flexibility- as you stack more and more of the same thing up, they often become less useful. Finding this balancing point is very important and there is no hard and fast rule for doing so; it will vary with each different army and each different list. What is overkill for one might be insufficient for another, but it's importan to understand that this point exists, because there is often the perception that more is always better, which is patently untrue.

"But of course being better at something is good!" some of you will be thinking. "That way even if I lose X members of the squad, I can still kill Y!" I'm sorry, no. For one, in almost all cases you would be better served buying another squad to assist you- "Boyz, not toyz" as the saying goes. Second, overkill can be very harmful to you- charging a squad and completely wiping it out can often leave you exposed and in the open, so limiting your kill potential is actually a good survival strategy. Last but not least, expecting a single unit (or type of unit) to handle all your army's problems is, at best, a dangerous gamble and at worst outright foolishness.

The lesson to take for this is not to just keep throwing points at something until every possible problem is solved; EVERY unit has weaknesses, and you can't fix that. Terminators hate low-AP fire; Assault Terminators dislike tarpits; everything has one or more units they just can't handle, so accept it and take something else in your army to deal with that threat. This isn't to say that you shouldn't try and cover your weaknesses, but you need to be aware of how many points you're spending and to what degree the weakness is an issue and will be mitigated by your countermeasure.

Comments (25)

Loading... Logging you in...
  • Logged in as
I agree. I play Draigo wing(boo hiss etc) and at 1750 points I have Draigo, 15 pallies with 6 psycannons and 2 pt hi DK's (1 with a gs). I would have loved to take a libby instead of non gs dk, but 2 shunting DK's is a better investment I feel. Draigo and 10 pallies can take on most things, and the distraction my DK's cause helps me more.
1 reply · active 705 weeks ago
Boo-urnns. Boooo-urrnnsss
Hi there abuse.

Sure, you're right about win more, if you play tcgs, you'll know the term crops up a lot there too. However, in regards to my army in particular, the only real problem it has is objectives, and considering how the game works with objectives, grand strategy and BLoS haven't yet let me down. Also, without the techmarine then assault terms are actually really scary if they charge me ;)

That said, I'm all for trying interceptors as I can use them to contest objectives my army can't get to.
Good article, but I think you're wrong about multiple small units and spam being a "win-more" strategy.

Basically what you're describing can be seen in the difference between buying an additional weapon at xpts and twin-linking an existing weapon at x/2pts. Twin-linking makes the first weapon's shots more reliable, proportionate to the user's BS. Users with low BS benefit proportionately more than users with high BS because the margins for missing with high BS are so much thinner. The additional weapon, on the other hand, not only makes the number of shots hitting more reliable, but increases the number of shots that can hit. This isn't just narrowing the margins, it's also expanding the space in which successes (hits) can occur.
5 replies · active 705 weeks ago
This "win-more" problem can be seen in people adding bells and whistles to their Grey Hunter squads instead of an extra Grey Hunter squad, rather than in adding an extra Grey Hunter squad. Basically increasing reliability at the expense of potential, and in particular redundancy, is a bad way of hedging against things going pear-shaped.

Which is why I like to harp on players balancing synergy, flexibility, and redundancy both across their armies, and within their units, to find that equilibrium point where you're not wasting points on a reliably weak punch.
The example Puppy gives does make a valid point though. If you load up on a unit with a single goal (melta vets in chimeras, although perhaps not the best example because of the inherent duality), then what difference does a unit make after having met that goal?

A more apt example may be a SM army loading up on rifle dreads, dakka preds and HB razors. These units, while providing saturation (which is good) al provide similar battle roles. That is anti-heavy infantry/light tanks and all within the same range bubble, which is bad when you face a horde of Nids or a huge foot IG army, for instance. I know the example is a bit farfetched. I believe the risk of win-more is less relevant for min/max MSU, because of the inherent duality that MSU list building has (or at least is supposed to have).

Ow and I just remembered. Take a look a Stelek's Nova list for the MSU example. He himself admits the list is sub-optimal, because loading up on Bolterback can only do so much against a saturated and ranged mech list, leaving all the heavy lifting to the Fangs.
I... I didn't say MSU was a win-more strategy. When I was talking about "spamming" units, that wasn't actually directed at MSU at all. Some MSU armies can fall under the label, like a SW army that has nine or twelve LasPlas in it, but MSU in general was not what I was talking about.
Sorry, brainfart on my end. Not sure why, but I saw "spam" and thought "msu".
to be fair MSU can be seen as the ultimate strategic end of such thinking in that its based on taking multiple units with clearly defined roles and relying on numbers and redundancy.
Abuse: I think this article lends itself so strongly to a discussion of marginal value that I'm really surprised you didn't mention it.
This is one of those things that is really clear to Tau players. You get these guys, and the want to brag to you about how killy their squad is. And.....truth is, you don't care. Because every MEQ or higher squad kills the crap out of you. If they're 3x as killy, that's great, actually, because they presumably paid more for it. You're dead either way, but when they're done, you get to kill a squad that's much more expensive.
14 replies · active 692 weeks ago
Haha, so true Prometheus! Don't tell people aboue this Abuse Puppy! As a Tau player it's my favorite part about playing against the new CC oriented codexs (BA + GK especially)! Next you'll be reminding these same uninformed, rather unimaginative players that FNP doesn't work against AP 2!
It should!

Itshoulditshoulditshoulditshoulditshoulditshoulditshoulditshoulditshoulditshoulditshoulditshould!
Let's not make this game any more like 4th Edition than it already is. :P
Well, since it IS an edition of 40k, I guess it has to be a BIT like previous editions.

Seriously though, I really don't think AP:2 should ignore FNP. AP:1 should, sure. But to me the line between AP:2 and AP:3 is really, really thin. AP:5 and 6 are light rounds without specialized penetrating power. AP:4 is you really heavy anti-infantry and light anti-tank rounds. AP:1 is super-special awesome anti-tank power. AP:2 and 3 are kind of a jumble of anti-heavy infantry, because heavy infantry can be either 3+ or 2+. Plasma-based weapons are in both categories (not Plasmaguns but plasma-ish weaponry in their fluff) and anti-tank guns are in both categories as well. I just feel that they are not different enough to say that one allows FNP to happen without a hitch, and one just ignores it completely.
I think though FNP is sort of described as "shrugging off"/ ignore injuries in the BRB. Somethings I suppose can't be shrugged off. Personally I see what you mean about the "fine line"... I think it's kind of silly that a krak rocket, missile pod shot or battle cannon shot can be "shrugged off"/ ignored (I mean, you can ignore it mentally but it should still horribly incapacitate/kill you!). So for me I sorta think it would make more sense to just be associated with "small arms fire" type weapons more than anything (AP 5 and 6), but then it wouldn't be very good at all. I can see your point, really though ultimately it's sort of a silly argument when trying to compare to "real life"...I think as far as how it works in the game, it's good that AP2 ignores it...there really aren't that many AP1 weapons after all.
I think the 'small arms fire' aspect of it is addressing a bit in the fact that weapons that would inflict Instant Death ignore FNP.
Plus, almost all of the units that get FNP have some degree of insanity/stupidity in their fluff (Death Company, Plague Marines, Ork Nobs, etc.) to the degree that they could get their arm blown off in combat by an Autocannon round, lok at the spurting stump, and just get really, really pissed.

Perhaps there should be some sort of normal Feel No Pain (guys that get it from counters/buffs) versus 'Heroic' Feel No Pain. The regular one only protects against AP:4 through 6, while the Heroic variety gives you it agasint AP:2 and 3 as well.
Maybe that would be too complex? It kind of gets into the realm that GW seems to want to avoid (maybe reasonably so) of having different levels of each universal special rule, maybe in a future addition they will go that route. I see your point with the insanity thing but my point was it doesn't matter how mentally tough/insane you are...there would be a limit to what your body can withstand, losing an arm maybe a Nob could keep going, but if a missile rips though the middle part of a Nob's body, sure he could spend the last few seconds of his life not caring but he'll still die! But you know I think the FNP role means that the missile didn't rip though the normal part of his body, GW is good at explaining things that seem ridiculous in real life. I think that's really the thing to keep in mind too, it won't ever always make sense when applied to real world, its a game and it has to balanced...as much as possible anyway. Considering all the dice that need to be rolled to see if a model gets killed or not, FNP is very powerful when at the end of to hit, to wound and a save you realize that now there is a 50% chance that all of that doesn't matter.

Consider FNP from a Tau stand point: if it weren't for the AP2 rule, only railguns and fusion blasters would ignore FNP...if you think about that for a second that would be very very unbalanced!
Actually that's a very good point.
Too much thinking and this is going to get into Necromunda territory, and I play 40k BECAUSE the ruels make it fine to run 100 models at one. This is ludicrous.

Although, if we had Heroic vs. normal FNP, there would be less models that ignored AP:2, and the others would be vulnerable to your AP:3 guns, so it ballances out.
I disagree. Marines with FNP generally already get 3+ and 4++ saves for almost everything fired or swung at them. There just aren't a lot of AP3 guns floating around, so anyone who really needs to take down 3+ armour has to shell out for some pretty fair-sized guns. In general, a plasma rifle in a Tau Empire army costs more than the Marine it's being fired at, and the Marines always outnumber the plasma rifles. To say that only AP1 weapons should ignore FNP is to privilege the fluff over tabltetop balance, such that killing, say, a Death Company unit with attached Chaplain would basically become impossible. No army has that many AP1 shots in their arsenal, and the amount of regular shots you'd have to throw at them would be pretty astronomcal.

FNP works just fine the way it is.
Clearly, YOU don't have 3 Flamestorm Predators and a Redeemer.
Well, no. Codex: Tau Empire is a little short on those units.
itcamefromthedeep's avatar

itcamefromthedeep · 692 weeks ago

Feel No Pain is ignored by things that ignore armor saves and things that cause Instant Death. Putting the line at AP 2 follows that (admittedly arbitrary) principle, while putting it at AP 1 would not. This way keeps it easy to remember.
Yeah, this is one of those things people forget a lot. "You better watch out, my Assault Terminators are coming for you!" "Why? They'll kill my Guardsmen/Fire Warriors/Kabalites exactly as hard as normal Marines would, so what's the difference? I'm gonna shoot these other guys instead because I know I can get rid of them while your TH/SS are busy punching five dudes to death."
But dude, they're terminators! I paid $50 for them; they had BETTER be that much more awesome!

Post a new comment

Comments by

Follow us on Facebook!

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...